Conditional Probability (Bayes Theorem) Visualized
It’s powerful to understand how conditional probability can be visualized using decision trees. I wanted to create an alternative to most explanations which often start with many abstractions. I was drawn to the idea of looking at the back pages of a choose-your-own-adventure book, and deciding how you could have arrived there. Here I present a visual method using a story involving coins… allowing you to decide how to formalize. Once we grow tired of growing trees, we may ask the key questions: how can we speed up this process?:
This is followed by a game I designed (built by Peter Collingridge) which introduces how branches can be weighted instead of counted.
Thanks to Kalid Azad for reviewing this lesson.