Archive for bayes theorem

Conditional Probability (Bayes Theorem) Visualized

Posted in Research and Projects, Video / Theatre with tags , , , on January 24, 2013 by Brit Cruise

It’s powerful to understand how conditional probability can be visualized using decision trees. I wanted to create an alternative to most explanations which often start with many abstractions. I was drawn to the idea of looking at the back pages of a choose-your-own-adventure book, and deciding how you could have arrived there. Here I present a visual method using a story involving coins… allowing you to decide how to formalize. Once we grow tired of growing trees, we may ask the key questions: how can we speed up this process?:

This is followed by a game I designed (built by Peter Collingridge) which introduces how branches can be weighted instead of counted.

Screen Shot 2013-01-27 at 6.18.14 PM

Thanks to Kalid Azad for reviewing this lesson.